In May 1945, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill was certain that Stalin did not honor its commitments to the Yalta Conference ( February 1945 ) . It was found there that the state occupied by Soviet troops themselves have chosen their authorities. He said then : ” I’m not going to be deceived on the Polish , even if we are on the brink of war with Russia .” Prime Minister commissioned the then Joint Planning Staff development and evaluation of the plan the attack on the Soviet Union. He wanted to know if he has any chance of success . As it turned victory in the war was very uncertain. The plan bore the code name ” Unthinkable ” and as such was sent to the most secret part of the archive. This material was strictly secret known only to a handful of small number of people . It was revealed in 1998, and today, this document can be viewed in the British National Archives ( Catalogue ref: CAB 120/691 ) .
However, Stalin quickly learned of its existence through his London Spy . His concern may cause oral command Churchill Marshal Montgomery to do inventory of German weapons against its ” future use ” . Stalin knew that he becomes an enemy number one in Europe. The paper consists of 38 pages and include an assessment of the potential effectiveness of the Allied attack on the Soviet Union . In this war game planned attack was to take place on the 1st of July 1945 British Prime Minister also wanted to know if you can take advantage of this confrontation remains of the Wehrmacht and the economic potential of Germany. Chief of Staff of the British General Alan Brooke was appalled by the plan. He wrote in his diary that Churchill ” committed for the next war.” Perhaps one of the reasons tendencies Churchill was his knowledge of the American project ” Manhattan” . The United States had been within range of nuclear weapons , which in the event of a confrontation with the USSR, the Allies could benefit . Or maybe they were reported to analysts about the possibility of the Red Army “on Middle East oil fields and offensive in Southeast Asia .” So the attack , which as I mentioned was to begin on July 1 , had to move divisions of British, American , Polish and German . The basis for a successful attack would be a surprise and immediately taking the lead in the air and at sea. It was assumed that aggression will meet with a positive assessment opinni public in the West, and the nations that are under the Soviet occupation will support the Allies .According to the estimates of analysts in the first few days the Allies would be able to put 47 divisions including 14 armored . Reconstituted Forces Wehrmacht was estimated to be 10 divisions including one armored , adding that they can not guarantee their suitability in the first stage of the battle . The potential of Poles by planners was 4 divisions . Russians are able to withstand the forces of 170 divisions , including 30 armored . At first glance the large disparity of power armor amounting to 2:1 , and 4:1 infantry . Advantage Allied naval concerned only , but she was not able to fundamentally change the course of the campaign. The Red Army was mainly concentrated in central and there a planned major offensive . Strike called Move on two fronts. The first ran on the line saw Szczecin Bydgoszcz , and the second – Cottbus – Leipzig Town. The decisive battle armor were to take place east of the Oder – Neisse . Planners wrote down : ” If we win there , we can get to the line Gdańsk – Wrocław” . At the same time it was found that when started to be real problems . Formed two options. The first involved the continued march to the east. But further fighting would last in the autumn-winter season while improving lines of communication . The second option was introduced to stop the attack and wait out until the spring , but this in turn would give the Soviets time to regain strategic advantage and rebuild strength. There remained the question of Soviet troops located in Bohemia and Moravia . If you reach the Vistula to the troops were on the right flank of the Allies. Russians themselves from these areas would not come out , so it should be directed against a force as undermining the main front. In fact, analysts forecast that ” there is no such limit which, if exceeded by the Allies break the Russian resistance. Nor can it be assumed that the Allies would be able to come so far so fast in Russia and Germany in 1942 , and even then not brought them success. ” It is hard to disagree with that opinion . As we can see possible defeat of the Red Army was a very daring challenge. No evidence did not indicate that, even with the support of the German and Polish divisions , you can break down the Russians. As noted in the report : “Although the Allies are more organized , have a slightly better weapons and higher morale , the Russians proved to be a formidable opponent for the Germans . Possess competent commanders , appropriate equipment and organization that (but does not fit our standards ) passed the test. On the other hand, only one third of all its divisions is in very good condition . remainder is relatively weak in comparison with the Allied less mobile . ” Although not ruled out victory in total war , and perhaps nuclear . (!) It would take a very long time and would be very expensive . According to estimates tactics Russians could rely on a phasing in an easterly direction to extend the Allied lines of communication . As well as the attack on Norway and Greece or Petroleum deposits in the Middle East. The invasion was very disturbing to Turkey ( cut , Black Sea ) . In the event of conflict, Moscow certainly sabotowałaby lines of communication and exploited its many agents in the West. Despite the quantitative advantage of the Red Army on the British Allied forces perceived chance of success of the operation in surprise and qualitative superiority of its forces . It was written : ” The Russian military is struggling with heavy losses and fatigue. Tactical Training is worse than that of the German forces . Should be taken into account the low level of education in the Red Army , all the experts were sent to specialized troops . Lacks a well educated and trained staff officers and mid-level commanders . emerging information that the Russian leadership has great difficulty maintaining discipline . Looting and drunkenness are common acting effect of war fatigue connections and contacts with more than at home in the material standard . Any resumption of hostilities that Europe would be a big burden for Red Army. Headquarters would have difficulties in maintaining morale , especially among the lower -ranking foot soldiers . effect could be strengthened if the Allies had applied an effective propaganda ” . It was also noted that ” most Americans demonstrated a clear reluctance to Russians. Applies even Berling’s army , which currently has 10 divisions – Moscow can not be sure that it will support Berling’s army , or at least remain neutral .” The entire plan was discussed among the highest commanders of May 31, 1945 , the Chief of Staff Alan Brooke idea summed by the words ” the whole idea is of course fantastic, but the chances of success are slim . There is no doubt that from now on Russia is a legitimate power in Europe ” . It was clear that the attack on the Soviet Union had to be completed , if not immediately , then quickly defeat.